Jumping right in – I spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about league and playoff structure for various sports. I’ll let a future therapist get to the reason behind this particular interest of mine. For now, please just take it for granted that I have my Malcom Gladwell 10,000 hours in this subject, honed via a lifetime of sports fandom and a half decade plus spent drawing up round robin, double elimination Hawaiian ping pong tournaments at the Circus Club. I even take my talents on the road for bachelor parties.
*Whipping up a nice little 14-team, 3 group round robin tournament for the boys.
On to the task at hand – perfecting the College Football Playoff.
Now I say perfecting because what we’ve got, as of this year, is acceptable. 12 teams. the top 4, who must be conference champions, get a bye. The other 8 participants are at-large (meaning voted in). The at-large teams play an initial round at the home field of the higher-ranked team. Following that, it’s on to neutral fields for the quarterfinals, semis and title game. This is exponentially better than the 4-team playoff, and we’ll not even bother harking back to the BCS. But we’ve still got some obvious issues. There is the questionable significance of conference championship games, lack of clear path for the little guys, and general bits and bobs we can improve upon.
So, I’ve decided to approach a revamp here from first principles. Here are the overarching goals for my structure and the raison d’etre for how it’s laid out.
No meaningless games – The goal of a good game designer should be to lend some significance to every regular and postseason game – no meaningless games, both teams involved should have something on the line.
Objectivity – We’ll always have some subjectivity in college football over where teams should be ranked. It’s such a Balkanized system that the central authorities need to be able to thumb the scale a bit.However these arguments needn’t be front and center for every debate.My system still includes at-large bids at the margins, but “what it takes” to make the CFB playoff will be imminently clear from the first snap of the season.
Accessibility – Call me old fashioned, but I believe that every single D-1 FBS team should have a chance at playing their way into a national title. Under the current system, would a 13-0 Jacksonville State team (C-USA) make the 12 team playoff? Maybe, and hopefully one year we’ll find out. But it’s not guaranteed, and we can be certain that most any 12-1 team from a lower conference wouldn’t have a chance to make it. I’m under no illusions that all conferences are equal, but I say let them play it out on the field. So I’ve built an on-ramp for all these schools to touch greatness.
Incorporating the existing framework (i.e. Conference Championship Games) – A truly ideal system would probably do away with these altogether. However there’s zero chance these money making conference t1itle games go away entirely. So being the pragmatist that I am, I’ve folded these into the playoff itself, and now they have clear benefits and consequences to the participants. The Lower Conference title games are part of round 1, while the Upper Conference title games are part of round 2. More details below.
Recognizing Conference Inequality – I believe in equal D-1 opportunity, but we can’t ignore the obvious talent gap between conferences. So I’ve tranched the conferences into Upper (SEC, Big 10, ACC and Big 12) and Lower (American, C-USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt). As you’ll see in the tournament structure, this classification gives a significant advantage to teams in Upper Conferences. Two quick points on this: First, this advantage already exists in the current system, just informally. Second, under my regime, the Upper and Lower designations are subject to annual reclassification based on inter-conference play.2
Now that you’ve patiently read my lengthy preamble, here’s the structure and how it would have played out this season.
First, the high level elevator pitch. After that, I’ll go into detail with examples from the current year.
Elevator Pitch. 24 teams, 6 rounds, starting with a upper and lower bracket.. The opening round consists of the 5 lower conference title games and 3 at large games (the lower bracket). The lower bracket is single elimination. The best 4 conferences will play their title games in week 2 (the upper bracket), thereby skipping the opening round of games. Winner from the upper bracket go on to the quarterfinals. Losers from the top 4 conference title games drop to the lower bracket, with a chance to play into the quarterfinals. Quarterfinals onward are a regular 8-team tournament.
So, finishing top 2 in your conference (thereby making the title game) gets you into the playoffs.3 Any D-1 school can play their way into the tournament. They just might have to do it starting farther back than the blue blood conferences. At large teams, and GDIs4 like Notre Dame have a path. Teams that make the SEC, Big 12, ACC or Big 10 Championship games get rewarded with a bye relative to any 3rd place teams in those conferences.5
Deeper Dive...Who makes the dance?
24 Teams, consisting of:
- 18 teams, by virtue of reaching their respective conference championship games. For most conferences, this just means the two teams who finished first and second in the regular season.
- 6 at large bids. Can be independent schools (looking at you Notre Dame) or also-rans from the top 4 conferences.
- Below are the 24 teams who would have qualified this year.
| Team | Method of Qualification |
| Oregon* | Big 10 Title Game |
| Penn State* | Big 10 Title Game |
| Texas* | SEC Title Game |
| Georgia* | SEC Title Game |
| Arizona State* | Big 12 Title Game |
| Iowa State* | Big 12 Title Game |
| SMU* | ACC Title Game |
| Clemson* | ACC Title Game |
| Boise State | Mountain West Title Game |
| UNLV | Mountain West Title Game |
| Army | American Athletic Title Game |
| Tulane | American Athletic Title Game |
| Marshall | Sun Belt Title Game |
| Louisiana | Sun Belt Title Game |
| Jacksonville State | C-USA Title Game |
| Western Kentucky | C-USA Title Game |
| Ohio | MAC Title Game |
| Miami (Ohio) | MAC Title Game |
| Notre Dame | At Large |
| Ohio State | At Large |
| Tennessee | At Large |
| Indiana | At Large |
| Alabama | At Large |
| Miami | At Large |
*The top 4 title games aren’t played until Week 2, so these 8 teams a get a bye.
Week 1
- Who is playing:
- 5 Conference Champion Games. The Bottom 5 conferences play their championship games in their current format.
- 3 At Large Play-in Games. The 6 at large teams play at the home field of the higher seed. For example if Notre Dame is the highest At Large team and Miami is the lowest, then the Irish will host the Hurricanes.
- Who is on a bye: The Top 4 Conference Championship games will take place Week 2. So those 8 teams all have a bye.
- Who is left: After the Bottom 5 Conference Championship games and the 3 at large play-ins, you’re left with 8 survivors from this week. All are re-seeded for Week 2 matchups.
- No need for a bracket just yet as the winners will be reseeded after this round.
| Week 1 Play-In Games | ||
| Game | Team 1 vs. Team 2* | |
| American Athletic Title Game | Army | Tulane |
| C-USA Title Game | Jacksonville State | Western Kentucky |
| MAC Title Game | Ohio | Miami (Ohio) |
| Mountain West Title Game | Boise State | UNLV |
| Sun Belt Title Game | Marshall | Louisiana |
| At Large Game 1 | Notre Dame | Miami |
| At Large Game 2 | Ohio State | Alabama |
| At Large Game 3 | Tennessee | Indiana |
*Projected winners indicated in bold.
Week 2
- Who is playing:
- 4 Conference Champion Games. The Top 4 conferences, who had a bye Week 1, now play their championship games.
- Winners move on to Week 4 and get a next round bye. Losers keep going, playing one of the “Round 2” winners in Week 3.6
- 4 “Round 2” Games. The 8 teams who survived Week 1 are now randomly drawn into games against other week 1 survivors.
- Only restriction on the matchups is that at-large teams can’t be drawn together.
- In a game between a conference champion and an at-large team, the conference champion gets to host.
- In a game between two conference champions, the higher rated conference gets to host.
- 4 Conference Champion Games. The Top 4 conferences, who had a bye Week 1, now play their championship games.
- Who is on a bye:
- Nobody, everyone in contention is playing this week.
- Who is left:
- From the upper the bracket, the four winners are now off to the quarterfinals with a week off before that starts. The losers from the top half will now drop down to play the winners from the bottom. For those keeping count, we are now down to 12 teams…on to Week 3!
| Week 3 Games | ||
| Double Elimination Games (Upper Bracket) | ||
| Big 10 Title Game | Oregon | Penn State |
| SEC Title Game | Georgia | Texas |
| ACC Title Game | Clemson | SMU |
| Big 12 Title Game | Arizona State | Iowa State |
| Single Elimination Games (Lower Bracket) | ||
| Game 1 | Boise State | Tennessee |
| Game 2 | Notre Dame | Jacksonville State |
| Game 3 | Army | Marshall |
| Game 4 | Ohio State | Ohio |
*Winners projected in bold for example purposes.
Week 3
- Who is playing:
- 4 “Round 3” Games. Losers from the top half of last weeks’ bracket get to host a winner from the bottom half of the bracket. Match-ups to be re-seeded.
- Who is on a bye:
- Last week’s winners from the SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and ACC championship games.
- Who is left:
- The four winners of this week and the four who got to sit this round out. We’re now down to 8, and from here it’s pretty simple!
| Week 3 Games | ||
| Game 1 | Texas | Army |
| Game 2 | Penn State | Boise State |
| Game 3 | Notre Dame | SMU |
| Game 4 | Ohio State | Iowa State |
Weeks 4 – 6
- Now we’ve got a nice, familiar 8 team bracket. This is all single elimination. For the quarterfinals, the 4 “Top Conference” Champions get to host a winner from the lower bracket. Conference rivals to be place on opposite sides of the bracket if possible.7
- For the semis and final, these are neutral sights at the traditional Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, etc.
- Winner takes all. For those who had to earn their way via Week 1 play, this would mean 6 straight wins. If a Big 4 champ runs the table, they can get it done in 4 games.
Silencing the Haters
Let’s get the counterarguments out of the way. At a potential six playoff games for those Week 1 teams, we’re looking at extending their season by a whopping 50% of games. Even the NBA, where the playoffs take forever, a team could only max out at extending their season by 20% if every series went to game 7. (Bonus points if they also had to go through the play in game). To this critique I say… tough. You want to get paid like professional athletes? You can play a few more nationally televised games. For lower conference teams, this will provide exposure and dollars.
One more criticism to raise and then discard – teams from the lower conferences, and GDIs like Notre Dame and UMass, will have a longer road no matter how well their regular season goes. Again I say, tough. Join a conference, or get your conference boosted up the coefficient rankings. There’s the not so remote chance that the top 40 schools jettison entirely the poorer 2/3rds of division 1 schools. At least this keeps everyone in the dance.
Revisiting First Principles
Time to circle back and ensure we’ve accomplished what we set out to do.
Does every game matter? Absolutely – this system puts a huge premium on the regular season for the big dogs who need to finish top 2 to guarantee a spot. Further, the conference title games now have a clear benefit for the participants, with plenty at stake once you’ve made it that far. As an added bonus, the conference coefficient, which determines the top 4 and lower 5, would lend excitement to every interconference matchup. San Jose State vs. Stanford8 would have Boise State and Clemson fans watching intently.
Is it objective and accessible? Yup, every team from every conference gets a shot and there’s still the excitement of committee rankings when determining the 6 at large teams. There’s no point in whining about strength of schedule anymore. Conference games are most important and pre-determined. Out of conference heavyweight games have more potential benefit than downside, as they can give you the nudge in an at large bid but won’t go against the straightforward conference qualification method.
So in sum, we as fans get more games on tv, winning programs get extra home games, and everyone makes much more money. This is the future I want and we all deserve. Please forward this to your local member of Congress so we can reach the promised land.
- For a counter example, look at the recent ACC Championship game between SMU – Clemson. Clemson won and so played its way into the final 12. The committee ultimately didn’t fully punish SMU for losing and kept it in. That’s fine, but it was a subject call by the committee, and if you’re going to make two teams play an extra game, the consequence, and benefit, of winning or losing should be set upfront. ↩︎
- For those familiar with the UEFA Champions League, we’d just use a similar coefficient to determine respective conference rankings. Fun bonus of added significance to out of conference regular season and bowl games. ↩︎
- The Sun Belt has an East and West division, whose respective winners make the title game. So technically a slight difference, but close enough for our purposes. ↩︎
- God-damn independents ↩︎
- Compare to a scenario this year , Tennessee vs Texas. Texas qualified for the SEC title game and lost in OT to Georgia. They have a slightly higher seed that Tennessee, but the Vols got a week off and now they’re slotted into the same round of the tournament. Not a disaster, but again the point of this article is to perfect the college football playoff, and clearly we can do better! ↩︎
- Shoutout AFL for the idea. This is how they do their playoffs, nuts right? ↩︎
- Intention here is to avoid a conference title game rematch unless it’s in the finals. ↩︎
- The Bill Walsh Bowl. ↩︎
Sports and Animals 